Clinton and Obama battle for Hispanic vote

In just over a decade, Hispanics are scheduled to become the majority ethnic group in California, the most populous state in the Union. On February 5, Democrats not just in Calfornia, but in other states with significant Hispanic populations such as New York, Florida, Illinois, Arizona and Colorado, will be going to the polls in their party's primaries. The way these Hispanic voters tilt between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will be decisive in the race for the nomination.

As cruelly as a new mountain range suddenly looms up, even as a climber pants to the top of the first ridge, so do these states loom over Obama's challenge.

The January 26 primary in South Carolina is above all a register of how African-Americans feel about the two leading contenders, and polls suggest Obama has a commanding lead. If these predictions hold, Obama will have no time to exult. Commentators will say that, as

a black candidate, victory in South Carolina was his for the taking and that the true test of his political stamina is still ahead.

A sinister omen for Obama came in last weekend's contest in Nevada in the fact that Mrs Clinton eked out a narrow but decisive victory because she won the Hispanic vote decisively. According to the entrance poll of Nevada caucus-goers, 64 per cent of Hispanic voters favoured Clinton to just 25 per cent for Obama.

There were confrontations, confirming the conventional political wisdom that browns - both native Chicanos and immigrant Hispanics - do not feel a commonality of interest with blacks.

After a study of Hispanic communities in a number of American cities, Paula McClain, a political scientist at Duke University in North Carolina, concluded that "Latinos tend to identify more with whites than with blacks", and that "what you may see is that Latino voters, despite conservatism on issues of gender, will feel more comfortable voting for Hillary Clinton than Barack Obama. They