The Horn of Africa is bracing itself for war. Large numbers of Ethiopian troops are massing on the Somali border, while at rallies in Mogadishu, Islamic militias are swearing to fight to the last man, woman and child.
It's easy to see the looming conflict as yet another African war, a bloody ethnic dispute between the old foes of Christian Ethiopia and Muslim Somalia. But behind the scenes, there are other forces at work.
Ever since 9/11, Somalis have feared that the War on Terror would come knocking, and that day appears to have arrived. The troops may be Ethiopian, but there is evidence that US forces are providing covert training, and perhaps even logistical support.
To America, Somalia has been the darkest corner of Africa since the collapse of its central government 15 years ago. Anarchy has camouflaged
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US-backed Ethiopia is preparing to combat Somalia’s Islamists, says matt ford |
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al-Qaeda cells that attacked US bases there long before 9/11. Since Clinton's botched 1997 invasion, and the death of 19 marines in the 'Blackhawk Down' incident, a direct US military response has been politically impossible.
Attempts at a diplomatic solution have failed, and a UN/Ethiopian/ US-backed interim government has been unable to assert its authority in any meaningful way.
The tipping point towards another attempt at a military solution came with the rise to power of the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) in June this year. This almost Taliban-style group may have brought law and order to Mogadishu and much of southern Somalia, but it has angered the US with its fiery Islamist rhetoric.
The US Assistant Secretary of State, Jendayi Frazer, describes the UIC as "extremists to the core... terrorists", and accuses them of 
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