Irish ‘ayes’ aren’t smiling any more

It ought to have been a walk-over. Irish Euro-philes began with every conceivable advantage. The money and the business organisations were on their side. Every newspaper backed the Lisbon Treaty. Six of the seven parties in the Irish Parliament were campaigning for a 'Yes' vote: only Sinn Fein stood out.

To cap these advantages, Irish Euro- enthusiasts had altered election law. Ireland used to have exemplary rules on the conduct of referendums, guaranteeing both sides access to every household. But after the 'No' to Nice in 2001, the law was changed to prevent such things happening again.

In short, Irish ayes should be smiling. But with five weeks to go before the vote, things are not going as planned. The 'Yes' campaign's lead has fallen from 23 to four points in a month. The core 'No' vote of previous campaigns - pro-lifers, neutralists and Republicans - has been

swollen by trade unions, farming organisations and, not least, a mass of mainstream voters worried about democracy and freedom (see www.libertas.org).

Irish voters fear - with reason - that the EU plans to harmonise business taxes. They know that their economic success is based, at least in part, on the fact that their rate of corporation tax is 12.5 per cent, as against 30 per cent in the UK, higher on the Continent.

Euro-integrationists regard this disparity as a form of 'fiscal dumping', incompatible with the single market. With spectacular clumsiness, the EU brought forward plans to level the playing field, and then said it would shelve them until after Ireland had voted. 'Yes' campaigners are on the defensive: they spend their time saying what the treaty won't do rather than what it will.

Pushed for positive reasons to vote in favour, they fall back on: "The EU has been good for Ireland". Maybe. But, if so, this is an endorsement of the existing arrangements. No wonder voters seem in no hurry to change them.