Hezbollah takes West Beirut: what now?

The seizure of West Beirut by Hezbollah fighters this morning has raised the spectre of Lebanon descending into civil war on the scale of the conflict that wrecked the country between 1975-90.

The leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, accused the American-backed prime minister Fuad Siniora of "declaring war on Hezbollah" in a fiery speech broadcast on Thursday night. The government had tried to close down the Hezbollah communications network linking its centres in the Shia zones of the capital with command posts in the south of the country. Hezbollah replied with three days of running street battles, and now claims to have taken most of the commercial district and centre of West Beirut.

The signs of a new civil war are glaring and obvious, many familiar from the conflict of the 1970s and 80s which saw Hezbollah emerge

as a Shia fighting force. It was responsible for blowing up 241 US Marines and 58 French soldiers on one day in October 1983.

The civil war was also an international war, involving the Palestinians - whose Fatah fighters, loyal to Yasser Arafat, were present in large numbers in Lebanon - Israel, Syria and Iran. The last two were - and still are today - the prime backers of Hezbollah.

The violence today stems from unfinished business following Hezbollah's inconclusive 32-day war with Israel in southern Lebanon in July 2006. The UN force UNIFIL was beefed up to help the Lebanese Army disarm militias, including Hezbollah. That has not happened and it is feared that, with aid and arms supplied by Syria and Iran, Hezbollah now 'over-matches' the UN and Lebanese forces.

One difference is Israel is staying out for the time being. It's an "internal matter" for Lebanon, President Shimon Peres has declared. The big worry now is that the US will decide to use force against Syria and Iran in the name of weakening Hezbollah.