snapped sipping tea 'with the locals' at a downtown cafe in the city.

The Brits will go with the Americans' blessing - because they are likely to have to head for the exit door, too. The big development of the past few days in the region is the visit to Iran by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki of Iraq - a surprisingly durable politician, as the Americans and Brits are discovering.

Somewhat rashly, Bush has been canvassing the idea that America should have a string of permanent bases across Iraq, from which they would keep an 'overwatch' on the things that interest them most, Iran and oil. This might form the basis of a regional security pact to be underwritten by Baghdad, Tehran and Washington.

Maliki was smart enough to mention this up-front in his talks in Tehran. Here the key interlocutor was not President Ahmadinejad, whose remarks during the visit have been hardly reported, but Iran's Supreme Leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei himself. The Grand Ayatollah rarely speaks in public, but

he chose to go on the record to say he was in favour of a security deal between Tehran and Baghdad - with the proviso that the Americans quit Iraq.

This view has been endorsed by the leading Shia spiritual authority in Iraq, Grand Ayatollah Ali al Sistani (left), who tries to keep his nose out of politics, at least in public. I am told that he has now informed the Americans and British they must go, because they must have no permanent security or institutional role in a future Iraq. This is a major development as Sistani had said previously the Americans were needed pro tem for security reasons.

So America and Britain are likely to have little or no toehold in Iraq as the country develops its huge new oilfields west of Basra. Contracts for the three large fields beyond the Rumailiya field, the richest in Iraq, are now being let.

Instead they will have to turn to the smaller kingdoms and emirates for their bases in the Gulf region - if the Saudis and the other big players will let them. Meanwhile Iran enriches its uranium apace.