skip to nav

Environment: are we lying to the pollsters?

After John Major’s ‘shy Tories’ are we seeing a new breed of ‘shy Clarksons’, asks Robert Matthews

There's a spring in the step of the nation's eco-warriors today. Despite pundits saying no-one gives a stuff about saving the planet now the economy's in meltdown, it seems the public is keeping the faith.

According to a new Guardian/ICM poll, tackling climate change remains a higher priority for most voters than government action on the economy. More impressive still, almost two-thirds of those questioned support the introduction of green taxes to promote a more caring attitude towards the environment, while barely a third said they are firmly against them.

Jeremy Clarkson must be spinning in his 4x4 supercharged turbo SUV. Knowing him, he's probably screaming about how he would tell the smiling idiot with the clipboard precisely what he thinks about saving the planet. But not everyone is Jeremy Clarkson.

And for anyone wanting to believe these new findings, there's the rub.

Ever since their stunning failure to predict John Major's convincing victory in the 1992 General Election, pollsters have known that people will tell them one thing but do another in the privacy of the polling booth. The final opinion polls had pointed to a one per cent lead to Labour ­ which magically turned into an eight per cent victory to the Tories on election day.

Psephologists discovered that a major cause of the discrepancy between the polls and reality was voters preferring Major's tax-cutting agenda, but not wanting to admit it. It became known as the 'Shy Tory Effect', and it should worry anyone wanting to believe the Guardian/ICM poll.

Because for every Top Gear presenter who relishes telling people just what he thinks, there may well be millions of 'Shy Clarksons' out there reluctant to tell pollsters that they actually care more about the future of their mortgage than about the fate of Mother Earth. 

FIRST POSTED JULY 2, 2008
Ever since John Major’s 1992 election victory, pollsters have known people will tell them one thing but do another