The Tories’ Glasgow East dilemma

The Labour Party in Scotland, usually seen as Gordon Brown's personal fiefdom, is in turmoil. Not only does it lack a leader, but it could well be about to lose Glasgow East to the SNP in a by-election.

For the Prime Minister, the stakes could hardly be higher. Labour's majority in the seat is a massive 13,500. If it is lost, then no Labour MP will feel safe with him, and he will no longer be able to consider himself safe with them.

But it is not only Labour who have reason to be nervous about Scotland. There is a lot at stake for the Conservatives, even though they have no hope at all in Glasgow East.

The weaker the Prime Minister becomes, the greater the risk of an unforeseen political accident leading to an early General Election. Surprisingly perhaps, given their huge

lead in the opinion polls, this is the last thing senior Conservatives want at the moment.

Immediate power, with the economy declining by the day and their own policies still largely unformed, is not a prospect they privately relish.

Looking further ahead, more thoughtful Tories are also beginning to worry that if they win big in England at the next election and the SNP do likewise in Scotland, Alex Salmond will be well set for the referendum on independence which he has pencilled in for 2010.

Whatever the tactical advantage to the Conservatives of a smaller Scots Labour presence at Westminster (or even none at all), they do not want the United Kingdom to fall apart on their watch ­ and certainly not in their first year in office.

But if the SNP captures Glasgow East, it could become unstoppable. And while that would be very bad news indeed for Labour, in the medium term it could give the Tories serious problems, too.