Musharraf’s going leaves West a bleak option

When General Pervez Musharraf stood on the steps of his official military residence days after taking power in 1999, his satisfaction was evident. "Are you enjoying yourself, sir?" I asked him. "It is nice to be in power," came the answer.

Nine years later and that power has gone, victim to a series of political miscalculations and historic shifts in Pakistani society, regional and world politics. What does this mean?

With Pakistan it is always tempting to emphasise the chaos, not the continuity. In fact, Musharraf's departure may change less than one might think. The international community has already factored his political demise into calculations.

The option from Washington and London's perspective is bleak: the unimpressive heirs to Benazir Bhutto, or the Pakistan Muslim League leader, Nawaz Sharif, who is far from a natural friend of the West. One or the other will be able to force through their candidate as president in a coming election.

Sharif’s admiration for the

Gulf, his preference for Urdu language and local culture, his (or his family's) wealth, his chauvinistic nationalism, his religious and social conservatism do not make him an obvious choice as a local ally. As for the Pakistan People's Party, they are suffering an identity crisis: are they the Bhutto party with no Bhutto? And if not, what do they stand for? No one knows.

The two big problems facing Pakistan at the moment are the Islamic militancy - effectively a minor civil war - in the west of the country and the flagging economy. Expect little improvement in either. The violence in the west has roots that go back way beyond the mistakes of Musharraf. And after Pakistan's boom - in part due to Musharraf's liberal economic policy - a bust was inevitable. Neither Sharif nor his opponents have an exactly impeccable economic record.

But at least the military are back in their barracks. Another cycle of civilian-soldier rule is over. Perhaps this time, with the help of the international community, Pakistan can achieve a fragile democratic stability and defeat its internal demons. Perhaps.

Jason Burke is a senior foreign correspondent for the Observer