John Reid: Labour plotters’ secret weapon

When Lady Thatcher lunched at Chequers at the weekend, the official line was that Gordon Brown planned to discuss the global downturn with the woman who saw (and arguably caused) a few downturns of her own.

But it's possible that he might have looked to her for some tips on how to avoid being turfed unceremoniously out of office - and about the dangers of stalking horses.

Thatcher's demise is often traced back to the decision of a backbench Tory MP Sir Anthony Meyer to stand against her in 1989 as a stalking horse - a candidate who doesn't expect to win but who creates the conditions for bigger political beasts to mount a challenge. In that election, one in six Tory MPs failed to back Thatcher and, as Meyer himself said, "people started to think the unthinkable". A year later, following the more

substantial challenge from Michael Heseltine, Thatcher was ousted.

Meyer had been dismissed as a mere 'stalking donkey'. Nothing so derisive could be said about the man being touted in some quarters as a potential challenger to Gordon Brown: the former Cabinet minister (Health, Defence, Home, Scotland... You name it, he's done it) John Reid. He would be more of a stalking stallion.

More important, he needn't 'stalk' on anyone's behalf - he could go for the leadership himself. He is a man around whom the plotters could stop merely plotting and build a real challenge.

Reid seriously considered a leadership challenge in 2006 when the Brownite hue and cry against Tony Blair was gathering force. During the Labour Party conference - as this year, held in Manchester - Reid watched avidly as a BBC Newsnight focus group led by the American pollster Frank Luntz showed that ordinary voters reacted more positively to Reid than to Brown.

Among friends and aides watching the