leaders. The techniques beloved of Britain's 19th-century imperialists have been re-learned and re-applied. As a result, according to internal al-Qaeda documents captured by the Americans this year, the organisation there now faces an "extraordinary crisis". A mass defection of ordinary Sunnis from al-Qaeda to the government "created panic, fear and the unwillingness to fight".

Al-Qaeda, then, has suffered serious setbacks. But even if it is currently down, its apparently impregnable sanctuary in the tribal areas of Pakistan means that it is certainly not out. The destruction of the Marriot Hotel in Islamabad is just the latest reminder of how potent a force al-Qaeda remains in Pakistan. For months now there have been suicide attacks in Pakistan's cities every three or four days.

Both John McCain and Barack Obama say they will deploy more American troops in Afghanistan. It's a high-risk strategy. The Iraqi surge may have worked, but Afghanistan is a very different place. Most

Afghans have known nothing but war and it's increasingly clear they will resist troops they now see as foreign occupiers. Al-Qaeda may have done badly in Iraq and Saudi Arabia, and its violence may have alienated some potential supporters, but it is still looking forward to the coming battles in Pakistan and Afghanistan with some confidence. Neither Nato nor the Pakistan army have yet found a convincing answer to the Taliban's advances on Kabul and even the Pakistani city of Peshawar.

Both sides agreed from the outset that 9/11 was the opening salvo in a conflict that would last for decades. The evidence so far is that when the West, or forces allied to it, use overwhelming force they can prevail militarily. But in doing so they feed Al-Qaeda's narrative and help the organisation survive. Al-Qaeda's civilian death toll may be unpopular in the Muslim world but the Western failure to win hearts and minds means the organisation is far from defunct.
Owen Bennett-Jones presents 'Is Al-Qaeda winning?’ on Radio 4, September 30 at 8pm