Is America ready to dump President Karzai?

Grave accusations have been laid this week that Ahmed Wali Karzai has profited serially from the Afghan narcotics trade and has been protected by his brother President Hamid Karzai. The news was reported as a lead item in the New York Times - and that is the real story.

The news itself is old - there have been stories circulating for years about the involvement of Ahmed Wali (right) with the narcotics trade. These have been denied by both the accused and his brother the president. The latest accusations relate to big shipments in 2004 and 2006 - and the latter has been corroborated for the New York Times by a grass called Hajji Ahman Keri, who is still in custody.

The important aspect of the Times story is why it has been brought up now. The obvious conclusion is that the US has finally decided

to dump President Hamid Karzai and will back another candidate in next year's elections in Afghanistan - and one more amenable to their policy on Afghanistan and the war on terror in the region.

As the US defence budget for the coming year, including the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, is revealed to be $700bn - exactly the amount required to bail out the US financial sector, and ten times Britain's annual defence budget - General David Petraeus is drawing up a new and more punchy strategy for Afghanistan. He believes his 'surge' of 35,000 extra US troops improved security in Iraq and he now proposes a surge of 15,000 US troops for Afghanistan before next spring. But he wants the Nato allies to match this.

Last week his request appeared to get pretty short shrift in London. The fear is that America with its cross-border raids into the tribal areas of Pakistan is spreading the war. Combined with an al-Qaeda push in Kashmir, we could be facing a widening regional conflict, culminating if we are not careful in