DIS faces payback for dodgy dossier doubts

The shadowy figures of the Defence Intelligence Staff (DIS) have been pushed to breaking point by Government plans - leaked over the past 24 hours - to axe hundreds of posts.

A mixture of specialist civil servants and serving military officers, the DIS analyses intelligence for the military Chiefs of Staff, the Joint Intelligence Committee and the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre.

But unlike the other intelligence agencies, they do not feed off the (largely secret and infinitely flexible) intelligence budget. Instead, they are paid for by the Ministry of Defence which, after fighting small wars on two fronts for a period longer than the duration of the Second World War, is now effectively broke.

DIS staff are also responsible for gathering and processing all military intelligence. They have large teams deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan while the 'desk officers' in Whitehall flying 'mahogany

bombers' (in the jargon) are these days invariably suntanned soldiers recently returned from a conflict zone. You would have thought that we could not have enough of such people.

Recently the DIS has been producing increasingly realistic/pessimistic assessments of our military operations in Afghanistan. It's a pessimism reflected in the public or leaked pronouncements of senior diplomats and military commanders.

The DIS is no longer confident of victory. This is, of course, the ultimate sin in an 'on message' Whitehall and also embarrassingly out of kilter with that of our American allies/masters - which is a more gung-ho view of the world.

Previously accommodated in the Old War Office, where the Chief of Defence Intelligence occupied the same office into which John Profumo smuggled Christine Keeler (and yes it does have a secret entrance), the staff retained in Whitehall are now crammed into partitioned offices in the MoD's main building with large numbers exiled to suburban Feltham.

What really worries the DIS is that what the MOD calls 'streamlining' looks suspiciously like an attempt to reduce their influence and ultimately their efficiency. Their independent voice, closely connected to the experience of our troops on the ground, will be muted.

Some of the old and bold even see it as a politically-inspired payback over the agency's refusal to 'drink the Kool Aid' over Iraq: DIS weapons experts were famously unconvinced by the Campbell/Scarlett dodgy dossiers.

The impending reductions look like another dreary step on the road towards a 'politicised' intelligence community on the American model. Tell the politicians what they want to hear and your budget is increased. Step out of line and you get 'streamlined' and moved to Feltham.