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FIRST POSTED DECEMBER 1, 2008

Will it happen again?
There is now every likelihood that jihadi groups are planning attacks on others tourist targets in the run-up to Christmas. The key element - the fanatical jihadi recruit - is in copious supply.

Is India ready?
Clearly not. The Indian authorities were caught flat-footed, hence the offers of resignations from state and government ministers. Despite the previous attacks on Mumbai, and the attacks in Jaipur, Ahmedabad, Delhi and Bangalore, the authorities seem to have had no clue that this attack was coming. Now, the country is to have a homeland defence department like those in the US and UK. But if the enemy is definitely Lashkar e Taiba - as the Indian Criminal Investigation Bureau has leaked - then much depends on the volatile state of India's relations with Pakistan over Kashmir, which is proving as big a security threat to the region and the world as Afghanistan.

What is Lashkar e Taiba?
The group - it translates as 'fighters of the pure' - was established 20 years ago to fight the Indian occupation of part of Kashmir and was initially aided by the ISI, the infamous Pakistan Inter Service Intelligence agency. Pervez Musharraf tried to close them down after the murder of the American journalist Daniel Pearl. But they are known to have a strong following, with several thousand militants prepared to fight.

Is there an al-Qaeda connection?
Indirectly, yes. There may even be a direct link. Al-Qaeda is a backer of Lashkar e Taiba and has helped it with funding and training. Osama bin Laden himself is said to be as interested in the Kashmir cause as much as the cause of the Taliban in Afghanistan as a springboard for global Jihad. Lately, al-Qaeda is reported to have been setting up new training camps in Pakistan for young foreign fighters from Chechnya, Uzbekistan, the Arabian Peninsula and Turkey for jihadi operations in the Gulf and Europe. There is now emerging a generalised jihadi campaign to test the new Barack Obama presidency. The attacks and initiatives are loosely coordinated, but not centrally commanded from one base. The Mumbai attack looks like the first in the campaign.

What is the biggest risk now?
The worry is that India will bow to popular resentment against Pakistan and mount a reprisal. The attack has put the dispute over Kashmir right at the top of the agenda, and it is now a bigger issue for the regional jihadis than Afghanistan. There has been no progress on reaching a deal over the territory, disputed since independence in 1947. The hardline nationalists in India might argue that they have to strike as the US-led coalition struck Afghanistan as the base of al-Qaeda following the September 11 attacks of 2001. This risks an all-out war with Pakistan, this time involving nuclear weapons.

Is Britain ready?
The UK is a target for jihadi militants trained in Pakistan, such as the group led by Mohamed Sadique Khan that bombed the London underground and the bus on July 7, 2005. While Britain has access to far more highly trained forces, including armed police and special forces, than India could muster in Mumbai, in order to tackle the new commando-terrorist tactics of the Jihadi terrorists we need urgent changes to the command structure of anti-terrorist agencies in the UK.

What needs to change?
In Britain, as in America, too much of homeland security provision is lip service. After 7/7, the JTAC (Joint Terrorism Analysis Committee) was formed to coordinate intelligence. But there is no centralised anti-terrorism command. The ministries, armed services and police still fight too many turf wars. They want to keep control of their own patch. Now there must be one single commander for anti-terrorist operations, answerable to one minister who works directly to the prime minister. There must be a National Security Council, chaired by the PM on important occasions. Working with the JTAC, which has been doing good work in analysis since it was set up, must be a JTOC - a Joint (anti) Terrorist Operational Command - which coordinates the short and long-term planning and operations of all civil and security agencies involved in a major emergency - from terrorist attack to natural disaster. Finally, an elite force of anti-terrorist commandos, from police and military, needs to be trained on SAS lines for internal UK security, and distributed on a regional basis – otherwise it would take too long to move them into action. 

FIRST POSTED DECEMBER 1, 2008
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Filed under: Mumbai, India, Terrorism, War on terror, terrorist, al-Qaida

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