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I'm beginning to think Francois Bayrou will edge it. The little-known leader of France's centrist UDF has all the requisite qualities: he is dull, cautious and - best of all, from a Gallic point of view - a farmer.
After those two flamboyant rogues, Mitterand and Chirac, the French might well be in the mood for a stolid Catholic whose talk, as the Good Book says, is of bullocks. If Bayrou can pip Segolene Royal to the second round, he will almost certainly beat Nicolas Sarkozy in the run-off.
Most commentators are at a loss to explain Bayrou's sudden surge in the polls, but I think I have the answer. Five years ago, when he was still an MEP, Bayrou took a television crew to a Strasbourg suburb to meet disaffected young Muslims. When a leering boy made an obscene gesture, Bayrou promptly cuffed him, delighting French adults.
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With few differences of policy between the candidates, such flashes of personality become disproportionately important.
The French have a saying, 'bonnet blanc ou blanc bonne' meaning, roughly, Hobson's choice. Sarko, Sego and Bayrou are all in favour of deeper European integration, aggressive secularism, high taxes and large-scale public works schemes. And, in fairness, other than the bit about Europe, they are reflecting the view of their electorate.
So, inevitably, the election will come down to personality: two clever-dicks against one plodding, no-nonsense father-of-six.
There may be a lesson here for David Cameron. When the Tory leader recently toured a wretched Manchester estate to make the point that gun crime had to be solved locally, by families and communities, a pasty-faced hoodie fired an imaginary pistol at him.
Perhaps, the next time this happens, my boss should give the young oik a clip round the ear. It seems to do the trick. 
FIRST POSTED MARCH 16, 2007
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