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John Reid: the coming man

It was a bad week for Brown. Now watch out for John Reid, says our Downing Street insider

Tony Blair had a good week. Gordon Brown didn't. It's that simple. The Chancellor was cheered last night by the backing of John Prescott and earlier by the warm praise from Bill Clinton. But all told, the week has cast doubts on his chances of getting the job he covets.

His big speech suffered the double whammy of being overshadowed by Cherie Blair ("Well, that's a lie") and then totally eclipsed by a masterly farewell address from the PM.

What's galling for Brown is Blair's speech was so good it bought him the right to go on until next summer. And for all Blair's talk of using that time to bring peace in the Middle East, everyone knows it's ten months he can use to bolster an anti-Brown candidate.

The Blair camp - whose desperation to keep a Blairite in power cannot be underplayed - has been further buoyed by polls which

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indicate that Brown might win the leadership but lose a general election.

It's not just the public asking questions. Delegates in Manchester are expressing growing doubts about Brown's suitability for the top job and his ability to win. Last night TV producers were handing out "Anyone but Gordon" wristbands in conference bars.

But who will it be? David Milliband and Alan Johnson hardly set the heather on fire with their conference speeches. It's John Reid who now looks the man most likely to challenge Brown. This morning he received one of the warmest receptions of conference and a standing ovation at the end of his speech.

He didn't declare himself explicity, but the word leadership was scattered throughout his speech. When he said, "We won't be brow-beaten by bullies", one couldn't help feeling he was talking about the Brownites as much as he was about potential terrorists.

If the sniping around Brown's succession continues - and if the polls continue to indicate that he would lose to Cameron in a general election - then Reid will declare himself officially before long.

FIRST POSTED SEPTEMBER 28, 2006

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