Alan Johnson WAS the better choice

Gordon Brown has pulled out all the stops - ably encouraged and aided by his right-hand man Peter Mandelson - and seen off the most serious threat to his leadership since he entered No 10. It now looks virtually certain he will lead Labour into the next general election in a year's time.

But have the plotters, who wanted to put Alan Johnson into the job, woken this morning to the realisation they have helped secure a Tory majority at the election?

According to a new poll for the Independent, if Johnson were leader, the Tory advantage over Labour would be cut from 16 per cent to 10 per cent - the difference between an overall majority of 74 for the Tories and a hung parliament, with David Cameron six seats short of outright control.

The result will dismay the plotters who either backed down, were frightened off by another brutal operation by the whips, were bought off by promises of policy changes over issues like Royal Mail privatisation, or simply hesitated when their moment came.

They always argued a change of leader would give them a fighting chance at the next general election. And most of them also believed Johnson was the man to make the most of that chance. Now they appear to have been proved right a day after they blew it.

That is not to say they won't have another go, perhaps at this September's party conference. The meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party on Monday night saw some pretty direct criticisms delivered straight to Brown's face. But they mostly came from the "usual suspects" - Charles Clarke and Stephen Byers leading them - who never wanted Brown to have the job in the first place.

What was always needed, and will certainly be needed if any future coup is to succeed, is a more concerted, Cabinet-level move led by a serious figure, preferably not from the Blairite wing of the party.

That last condition might seem to rule out the master manipulator Peter Mandelson. But don't bet on it.

Mandelson was the key player in the fightback and, as a result, he has now got what he has wanted since the day he entered politics. He is, to all intents and purposes, Prime Minister. No policy change or development, no keynote Brown speech, no election strategy will be agreed in 10 Downing Street until Mandy has given it the thumbs up.

And if the First Secretary, to give him just part of his new title, decides the time has come to remove support from Brown, then Brown will fall.