Iran wanted a crisis in the Middle East – and now it has one. edward luttwak explains |
 |
|
|
 IRAN
Until recently, it seemed likely Iran would finally accept the European Union/US offer and agree to stop uranium enrichment in exchange for a pressurised light-water reactor, guaranteed supplies of five per cent enriched uranium, spare parts for the civilian US aircraft they operate, and other favours.
Instead, Iran's leaders have decided to reject the EU/US offer - their request to delay their response until August being a tactful way of doing so, given the EU/US deadline - and not to wait passively for the expected sanctions and retaliation.
They have activated their new Hamas allies, whose leader operates from Damascus under the control of their ally Syria, and their old controlled clients, the Hezbollah of Lebanon, to attack Israel on two fronts.
The immediate purpose is to create a Middle
|
|
 |
 |
|
Iran has created a crisis to discourage the EU and US from starting one of their own
against Iran |
|
|
|
East crisis, in order to discourage the EU and US from starting one of their own against Iran. But there's another motive too. Iran's overall claim to be a leader of the Middle East and of the wider Muslim world is being badly undermined every day by the Sunni/Shia fighting in Iraq. Attacking Israel overcomes all divisions among Muslims, and induces Arab gratitude for Iran's help.
HAMAS
Because it was already cut off from funding, and already diplomatically isolated, it was not unreasonable for the Hamas leaders to accept the Iranian offer of funding in exchange for action against Israel.
They duly increased rocket attacks on nearby Israeli territory, and launched a small raid across the international border capturing a soldier. That provoked Israeli retaliation, starting the present crisis.
LEBANON
It was altogether more costly for Hezbollah to serve Iran's strategy. Its ability to 
|
