The ‘real reason’ Mandy came back from Brussels

Did Peter Mandelson come back to London from Brussels to help Gordon Brown stay in power and possibly even win a fourth general election for New Labour? Or did he really come back as part of an extraordinary subterfuge to help his old friend Tony Blair become the first President of Europe?

There's nothing like a good conspiracy theory to get the Mole's nose twitching: this one comes from Sky TV political correspondent Adam Boulton, who has updated his book Tony's Ten Years for the upcoming paperback version. In a new chapter, he addresses Blair's ambitions not just to get rich but also to get himself a decent job.

Here's how Boulton's theory works:

Blair still wants desperately to be the first President of Europe - a job that will come into being only once the Lisbon Treaty, which Blair helped craft, is ratified.

Twenty-six out of 27 EU member countries have approved the treaty - all except the Irish who voted 'No' in last year's referendum. In a second referendum to be held on October 2, the Irish are expected to vote Yes. This is because the Irish economy is not in the buoyant state it was last time, and the Irish need all the help they can get from Brussels.

Assuming the Yes campaign is successful, EU leaders will move swiftly to complete the treaty.

But there's a potential fly in the ointment: Britain. If Gordon Brown were to leave office this autumn, any incoming Labour leader - it is generally agreed by political and constitutional observers - would have to hold a general election immediately rather than wait until May/June next year.

Let's assume that David Cameron's Conservatives win such an election. Cameron has pledged to hold an immediate British referendum on the Lisbon treaty if it has not by then been ratified. Based on opinion polls, it is reasonable to assume a No campaign would win such a referendum in Britain.

As a result, the treaty would be dead again, the EU presidency would not exist and Tony Blair would be a very disappointed bunny.

By coming back to London last year, rejoining the Cabinet as Business Secretary and generally working to save the PM's skin, Mandelson, "a lifelong member of the European movement" as Boulton puts it, was seeking to keep Brown in power, delay the election and ensure the treaty got ratified.

By doing so, he would become the darling of the EU leaders who in turn would look favourably on the choice of Blair to be their president.

There are a number of factors that could spoil Boulton's theory. For instance, if Angela Merkel were to lose the German election next Sunday, she might want and get the EU president's job ahead of Blair. But latest polls suggest victory for her centre-right coalition is assured.

Another 'spoiler' theory is, rather confusingly, put forward by Boulton himself in the same book: he says Blair and Mandelson are becoming increasingly concerned that Brown does not have the bottle to fight a general election and could "duck out" early, possibly pleading poor health. In which case, all bets are off on Blair getting the EU job.

We'll know soon enough whether Brown is going to duck out: it will either happen at the upcoming Labour Party conference, opening in Brighton next Sunday, or in its wake.