A 10 per cent lead over Labour.
It sounds good, but there's a long
way to go, says donald malcolm |
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When David Cameron trounced Tony Blair at the first Prime Minister's Questions of the new parliamentary session he goaded the PM into using the word 'cuts' about the NHS. 'Reconfiguration' is the approved Labour word for measures to deal with the cash crisis facing health authorities.
Cameron's backbenchers were delighted, but Labour were confident that the parliamentary jousting would have little significance outside the Westminster village.
However, this week's Guardian/ICM poll suggests that public disquiet about the NHS is causing Labour grievous harm. The poll puts the Tory lead over Labour at the magic 10 per cent level - magic because this is the lead the Tories will need at a General Election to gain an overall majority.
Tories should be heartened but not
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| To have any hope of an outright victory, they need to hit a sustained 10 per cent lead |
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complacent about the poll. The electoral system operates harshly against the Tories and analysts reckon that they need to be five per cent ahead of Labour just to get the same number of seats.
To have any hope of an outright victory, they need to hit a sustained 10 per cent lead in poll after poll for month after month, including the period when a new leader - almost certainly Gordon Brown - is elected. When that changeover comes, Labour will doubtless enjoy a "bounce" in popularity as the public express their relief at the end of the Brown-Blair saga.
Ten per cent in one poll is a start. But it's tenuous stuff. Only the day before the ICM poll, a Populus poll in The Times, admittedly with a small sample, suggested Brown was leading Cameron among swing voters.
The most significant effect of the ICM is that it will serve to keep Tory doubters quiet. As long as Cameron looks like a winner, he will get the space he needs to drive through the modernisation of his party. 
FIRST POSTED OCTOBER 26, 2006
 Tories can't afford to be complacent
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