Coetzee editor stands by for a podium record

If the South African-born writer JM Coetzee (above) wins the Man Booker Prize tonight for his novel Summertime, it will be the first hat-trick in the history of the literary award. He won in 1983 for The Life & Times of Michael K and again in 1999 for Disgrace.

It will also be the first time - we are pretty certain, there being no records - that the same publisher has gone to the podium twice to collect the £50,000 cheque because the winner didn't show up.

The man in question is Geoffrey Mulligan, Coetzee's editor at Harvill Secker. He picked up the prize when Disgrace won, and he's ready to do the honours again tonight. "He's asked me to collect it in the event," says Mulligan. "He lives in Adelaide now and it's a very long way to come."

Meanwhile a London friend of Coetzee's dismissed as "nonsense" a report in the Guardian that Coetzee is a grump who won't be missed at tonight's prize-giving dinner at the Guildhall anyway. "He's a delightful man. I don't know where that's come from."

If the bookies have it right, Coetzee is doing himself a favour by staying at home. They believe Hilary Mantel has the £50,000 prize in the bag for her historical novel, Wolf Hall, currently 8/13 at Ladbrokes having shortened from 6/4.

Coming up on the inside is Simon Mawer whose book The Glass Room went from from 14/1 outsider to 7/2 second favourite with William Hill over the weekend.

But as one publishing veteran put it to The First Post this morning: "These odds are pretty meaningless. When did you last go into Ladbrokes or William Hill and find someone putting money on anything other than a horse?

"We are talking about a tiny number of people affecting the betting. Most of them work in publishing and you can bet that the trend toward Wolf Hall started with someone chatting to a Booker judge who said something like 'The Mantel obviously stands a chance'.

"It would only take three people to dash round to the bookies - if they could find it - and put on a hundred quid to swing the odds considerably.

"The fact is, what one judge is thinking is of no importance until they get together with the others and tot up the score. The race is wide open. And by the way, I don't think the favourite has ever won."

The full shortlist for tonight's £50,000 prize is: AS Byatt for The Children's Room, JM Coetzee for Summertime, Adam Foulds for The Quickening Maze, Hilary Mantel for Wolf Hall, Simon Mawer for The Glass Room and Sarah Waters for The Little Stranger.