The Tories lead in the polls, but it’s not as good as it appears, says donald malcolm |
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Realists constantly remind David Cameron that Gordon Brown is the man to beat, not Tony Blair. But what about the Lib-Dems' leader Ming Campbell?
The latest Guardian/ICM poll showed 40 per cent support for the Tories, their best figure since just after John Major's General Election victory in 1992. It would theoretically translate into an overall Tory majority of 10 in the House of Commons.
It is a boost to Tory morale and enhances Cameron's authority because it helps convince Tory party members that he's a winner - something they could never believe about his three predecessors. Cameron will use the poll as ammunition in his drive to get more women and ethnic minority candidates selected in winnable seats.
But the fine print of the ICM poll carries a sting for the Tories: the 'Ming Sting'. The poll |
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The poll carries
a sting for the Tories: the
‘Ming Sting’ |
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is truly awful for Labour: 31 per cent is their worst figure for 19 years. But the Tory-Labour gap widened because Labour plunged five points thanks to a leap in support for the Lib-Dems to 22 per cent. The Tories actually advanced by only one point.
A resurgent Lib-Dem challenge is a mixed blessing for Cameron. True, it is currently hurting Labour, but the vast majority of the 50-plus Lib-Dem MPs represent former Tory seats. They nearly won another, Bromley and Chislehurst, in June.
Campbell hopes to make it harder for the Tories to win back those seats by scrapping his party's commitment to a 50p top rate of tax. The move is designed to reassure better-off voters to stick with the Lib-Dems.
Campbell faces opposition at his party conference next month. But, just as with Cameron, the ICM poll will boost his authority and could help him push through the controversial tax policy. Which would be bad news for David Cameron. 
FIRST POSTED AUGUST 23, 2006
 Cameron: the new Blair - or the new Kinnock?
Read The Mole on Labour's woes
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