Expenses fiasco another excuse to push out PM

The Mole said all the way through party conference season, when instant polls were jumping up and down in reaction to keynote speeches, that we should wait until the post-conference dust had settled and read the polls then. Well, here's one - by YouGov for the Sunday Times - and it shows the Tory lead over Labour has narrowed to just 11 points, down from 14 a month ago.

This is hung parliament territory, far from the landslide victory for which David Cameron was hoping. Indeed, if Labour can close the gap by just a few more points then they have the real prospect of holding on to power, narrowly, because of the innate Labour bias in the electoral system.

Labour politicians - including - especially - Gordon Brown's fellow cabinet ministers - will be watching upcoming polls like hawks.

Virtually any survey conducted this year has made it clear that the party will only gain by ousting Brown as leader. And as the Mole wrote last week, with the general consensus being that Cameron and Osborne under-performed at Manchester, it is not too late for Labour to change leaders and prepare for May 2010.

Backed by the YouGov poll, and by the general despair at Brown's inept handing of the expenses issue, the Mole expects to hear more whispers of a putsch in the coming days.

Not necessarily whispered. Former local government minister Nick Raynsford happily told the Sunday Times yesterday that Brown had shown "cack-handed incompetence" over the Sir Thomas Legg issue, and added: "It is not, in my view, certain that Gordon will lead us into the next election".

One man who could unlock the door to a coup is the veteran Labour MP and long-time Brown-basher, Barry Sheerman. According to the Sunday Times, he is considering throwing the cat among the pigeons by standing for the position of chairman of the Parliamentary Labour Party - effectively, the backbenchers' 'shop steward' - against the incumbent Tony Lloyd, a Brown loyalist.

The Sunday Times claims it has detected support for Sheerman's stand from all wings of the party, not just from left-winger Alan Simpson whom it quotes. "Gordon has found himself floating adrift from his colleagues," said Simpson. "I think if Barry Sheerman stood, he might find a surprisingly high level of support.

Another MP, speaking anonymously, told the paper that if Sheerman were to win the PLP chairmanship, "it would mean Gordon has lost his party. It would be hard to see how he could carry on."

Incidentally, the Mole was delighted to see the Observer catching up with The First Post on the issue of what might happened next if the Tories do win the general election. Columnist Andrew Rawnsley asked whether Cameron might turn out to be a one-term wonder. You read it here first!