Poll shows Cameron now seen as PM-in-waiting

This is the poll the Brown camp did not want to read: a new Guardian/ICM survey shows that David Cameron is seen by voters as tougher, more decisive and - this is a real puzzler, but they apparently believe it nonetheless - more internationally respected than Gordon Brown.

In other words, the new poll blows out of the water the old Labour mantra that Cameron, having never served in government and knowing little of real life beyond the playing fields of Eton, is too inexperienced to be prime minister.

Indeed, he now appears to be seen as the PM-in-waiting and the majority are happy with that. As the Guardian puts it, "Most voters say they would be disappointed or even angry if they woke up the day after the election to find the prime minister had been returned for a fourth term in power".

What makes this particularly bad news for Brown is that it's become personal at a time when the gap between the parties - measured by voting intention - is actually narrowing. (It's down to 13 points according to the ICM poll, with the Tories on 42 per cent and Labour on 29 per cent.)

This reconfirms for the PM's enemies within Labour what they already knew - that Brown is the problem, not the government.

There are still many in the party advocating a mid-winter putsch to replace Brown with a more voter-friendly leader, and this poll gives them solid ammunition. We can expect more noise from backbenchers about it being time to hand over to Ed (Miliband, not Balls, in all likelihood).

Any idea - pushed by a surprising number of commentators over the weekend - that Brown can somehow take comfort from last week's Glasgow North East byelection result is poppycock. As the Mole tried to explain on Friday, the Glasgow result means nothing because the SNP is the party in power north of the border and Labour is the opposition. If anything, the result simply showed what voters are capable of when they want to express their disappointment in the government.

Brown's team know that of course, whatever they may have said publicly since Friday. And they know too that the ICM poll confirms their worst fear - that Cameron is "bedding in" as an acceptable prime ministerial candidate.

According to the survey, the Tory leader is ahead of Brown by 16 points - 48 per cent to 32 per cent - as someone who has what it takes to be a good prime minister. He also leads by 33 points as someone who has changed his party for the better, and by 11 points as someone who is decisive.

As for that 'morning after' question, voters were asked by ICM to pick from a range of emotions they might feel when they tune in on the day after the next general election - May, possible June - to hear the result.

Fifty-three per cent said they would be 'angry or disappointed' at news of a Labour win. Only 36 per cent would feel similarly about a Conservative victory. By contrast, 42 per cent would be pleased or excited to learn Cameron had won, against 27 per cent for Brown.

In the meantime, Brown still has one advantage - he's the PM and he can actually do things. Or as Westminster insiders put it, he can still "make the weather".

Hence the huge populist announcements of the past few days - a clampdown on those horrible bankers promised for tomorrow's Queen's Speech, and yesterday's declaration at the Lord Mayor's Banquet that we can start thinking about pulling the boys out of Afghanistan.

The trouble is, there's only one populist announcement that could make a real difference for Labour now: that he is standing down as prime minister. Don't hold your breath.