Gordon Brown boosted by new Populus poll

Gordon Brown's hopes of hanging on to power rest on Alistair Darling's pre-Budget package tomorrow. That is underlined by the new Populus poll for the Times showing that David Cameron's commanding lead has been whittled away since Brown launched his autumn fight-back against the Tories with a "fairness" agenda that will hit the middle classes and the wealthy.

The poll suggests that a hung Parliament is still the most likely outcome of the election, with the Tories down one point to 38 per cent, at the lower end of their recent range, and Labour, up one point on 30 per cent, at the upper end of theirs. This single-figure lead could give Cameron a majority of only two seats, but that would depend on a uniform swing at the election, which is unlikely to happen.

In the Brown bunker, Lord (Peter) Mandelson and Alastair Campbell have convinced Brown there is still all to play for. Brown is now keeping his fingers crossed that Darling's package – most likely to bit bankers' bonuses – will have a populist appeal to the voters, and draw a distinct line between 'fair to the people' Labour and the Conservatives under Cameron, 'only interested in helping Tory toffs'.

However, the Times says the poll carries a warning for Brown that his attack on Cameron's Eton background is not damaging the Tory leader with most voters. Asked whether in view of his Eton education and his "privileged upbringing" his policies are aimed at "helping rich people, rather than the whole country", just 34 per cent agree, and 58 per cent disagree.

But that misses the point: the 'E-word' is playing very well with Labour's core voters. The proposition that Dave is out to help the rich was supported by most Labour voters (by 59 to 37 per cent).

Brown's strategy is undoubtedly now to shore up the collapsing Labour vote, and it appears to be working. If he can build on that in the next six months, he could still stop Cameron entering No 10.

Camo may also have lost ground to UKIP over his abandonment of the commitment to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, with many core Tory voters wanting an 'in or out' ballot on Britain's role in the EU. The Liberal Democrats have been the main beneficiaries of the narrowing of the gap between Labour and the Tories, with Nick Clegg's party up two points to 20 per cent, while other minor parties are down two points at 12 per cent.

Clegg is hoping that more voters will believe that, with the prospect of a hung Parliament, putting a cross against the Lib Dem candidate is no longer a wasted vote. Clegg has invested all his political capital in a left-wing redistributionist Budget, soaking the middle classes and top earners with higher taxes, including the 'mansion tax' to help the poor.

So, Wednesday's pre-Budget report will be less about getting the deficit down, and more about shoring up Labour's vote. Given that taxing bankers' bonuses will take only a fleabite out of the expected £186bn budget deficit, it might not do much for the economy - but that's not the point.