The Nationalists have beaten Labour. But it won’t be easy, says allan massie in Edinburgh |
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The SNP have done it, but only just. With 47 seats to Labour's 46 they are the biggest single party in the new Scottish Parliament.
It is a considerable achievement and a personal triumph for their leader, Alex Salmond. He is in line to be First Minister, but must first construct a majority in the Chamber, and this means coming to terms with the Liberal Democrats, the only possible partner, since the Tories have ruled out doing a deal with anyone.
Even then, he would be a couple of votes short of a majority, and must therefore look for support from the two Greens and the sole Independent, Margo MacDonald; she used to be a Nationalist MSP, but has been at odds with Salmond for years.
Labour has not received the drubbing that many expected and some thought it deserved. Indeed it still holds the majority of |
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| Salmond will disappoint his followers if he doesn’t push for independence. But the risk may be too great |
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constituency seats, even though almost everywhere it lost ground to the Nationalists. It is poised to recover if the SNP don't deliver.
And therein lies the Nationalists' problem. This vote doesn't constitute a mandate for independence. Yet securing that is the party’s reason for existence. So there is stormy water ahead.
Salmond will disappoint many of his followers if he doesn't push the independence agenda, if he doesn't pick quarrels with the UK government and if he postpones the referendum he has promised. Yet to do these things risks breaking the fragile coalition he must form, and alienating those who voted SNP on May 3 primarily to eject Labour from office.
The SNP has won 20 additional seats, but the three Unionist parties hold 79 of the parliament's 129 between them. At any moment they could combine to bring down the administration. They won't do so unless provoked. Nevertheless, the fact is there is no Nationalist majority. Salmond must therefore walk warily. Interesting times lie ahead. 
FIRST POSTED MAY 4, 2007
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