A fragile chance for peace in Darfur

With militias being provocative, will there be a peace for the UN to keep, asks a s h smyth

Following meetings in Addis Ababa and Khartoum, UN officials announced on Sunday that Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir has finally endorsed a Security Council proposal for a peacekeeping force in Darfur.

The 19,000 soldiers and 4,000 policemen will be drawn from both UN and African Union (AU) troops, with an emphasis on the AU wherever possible, to assuage Bashir's fears of 'recolonialisation'. AU officers will also control day-to-day military affairs (for the same reasons), though the UN has doggedly retained overall 'command and control'.

Khartoum's 'unconditional' acceptance of this long-overdue intervention is good news. But we should not be celebrating just yet.

The first boots will only hit the ground in 2008, and that will be the 'heavy support' of military police and equipment; a far cry from sending in the full 23,000 on day one. Even at

The militias on both sides are still misbehaving; at this rate there will be no peace for the blue-hats to keep

full strength - with an actual increase of only 12,000 fighting men - this deployment may still not be big enough.

Meanwhile, the militias on both sides are misbehaving, their frequent provocations causing Khartoum's trigger-finger to itch and reducing chances of an interim ceasefire. At this rate, there might well be no peace for the blue-hats to keep.

Many of the constantly-fragmenting Darfuri militias are not signatories to the recent agreements, and it might have been wiser if they had been party to this latest round of decision-making. If and when the bullets start to fly, the peacekeepers will need to have a clear idea as to which militias are which.

Last, but not least, Khartoum has a terrible reputation for prevaricating over prospective deployments. Though this latest deal seems genuine, there is still time enough for President Bashir to change his mind.

The UN Security Council must get the full deployment of peacekeepers into Darfur before he does. Such an opportunity may not present itself again.