The Lib Dems may have said no, but no aspiring Labour pol will turn Gordon Brown down |
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A week from today, Gordon Brown will take over as PM and announce his first Cabinet. Aside from his invitation (rejected) to the Lib Dems to join him, this should be a straightforward reshuffle.
Tony Blair consistently got his reshuffles wrong. First, he never liked telling colleagues that their time in government was up. Second, as his power waned, senior Ministers refused to accept jobs from him, leading to hasty and imperfect overhauls of his cabinet.
For any aspiring Labour politician, saying 'no' to Gordon would be political suicide. He will be able to make his government in his own image - up to a point. Sacking too many Blairites or appointing too many Brown cronies will not go down well in the parliamentary party or with the press.
Although we know John Prescott, John Reid and Hilary Armstrong are going, many existing
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Cabinet members will remain: Jack Straw, Alistair Darling, Margaret Beckett, Douglas Alexander and Des Browne.
Ruth Kelly, Hazel Blears and Jacqui Smith will probably stay in Cabinet, but are most likely to move posts. Next week they will be joined by Brownites Yvette Cooper, Harriet Harman, Ed Balls and Ed Miliband. Geoff Hoon could also make a return to the top table.
And there could be cabinet promotions for Blairites, too. James Purnell, Liam Byrne and Beverley Hughes are all possibles.
Patricia Hewitt, Lord Falconer and Baroness Amos will probably leave the Cabinet. The big question is what Brown will do with Tessa Jowell and John Hutton. Both are Blairites and Hutton in particular has been no friend of the PM-elect. It will be a litmus test of just how forgiving Brown is prepared to be.
Some Brownites, like Nigel Griffiths and Doug Henderson, may be disappointed that they don't get a call from Gordon. But with one eye on an election, no minister or ex-minister will want to rock the boat. And Gordon can live with rejection from Paddy Ashdown and co. 
FIRST POSTED JUNE 21, 2007
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