By-elections on July 19 will pose different challenges to the new PM, writes donald malcolm |
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The first month of the Brown era will be marked by two intriguing by-elections. They'll be in Tony Blair's constituency of Sedgefield, and in Ealing Southall in west London, following the death of the veteran Labour MP Piara Khabra.
Both were held by Labour with majorities of 18,000 and 11,000 respectively. If the 'Brown Bounce' is a reality, the new PM should have nothing to worry about. But it may not be that simple.
The danger in Sedgefield is that voters often show distaste for MPs leaving for what is perceived to be a fat cat future. Blair's role as Middle East peacemaker is unpaid, but there's plenty of chatter about lucrative public speaking tours and memoirs. A solid local candidate should preserve the huge majority and shore up the grass roots.
In Southall, at first glance Tory leader David Cameron looks to have most to lose. Under
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| Voters often show distaste for MPs leaving for what is perceived to be a fat cat future |
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him, the Tories don't seem to have got the hang of by-elections, unlike Labour in the run-up to the 1997 general election.
They've come close to losing a safe seat to the Lib Dems (Bromley and Chislehurst) and were eclipsed by the Lib Dems in Dunfermline last year. The Tories face the same fate in Ealing Southall, where they were third in 2005.
A lot depends on how Labour resolves its dilemma over whether and how to get an Asian woman selected to fight the election. Had Khabra survived to retire at the election, his successor here would have come from an all-women list. That rule doesn't apply for the by-election.
At stake is the prize of an historic first for Britain's diverse society - the
election of an Asian woman MP.
As things stand, that piece of multicultural history will be written by a right-wing Tory, Priti Patel, who has been selected in the relatively safe set of Witham in Essex - unless Labour chooses an Asian woman to be their standard bearer in Southall. 
FIRST POSTED JULY 2, 2007
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