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Can UNAMID solve the Darfur crisis? Possibly

The UN commander in Sudan will need access to the best intelligence, says alex de waal

Darfur's crisis has seen many false dawns. Sudan's acceptance of UN Security Council Resolution 1769, which yesterday authorised the United Nations-African Union Mission in Darfur (UNAMID), might be different.

For two years, the diplomatic energy and political leverage of the US and UN have been overwhelmingly focused on changing African Union peacekeepers into a UN force. After months of sustained pressure and hard-fought Concessions - with China, Sudan's best friend at the UN, playing a cautiously constructive role - a compromise has been found. This establishes a hybrid AU-UN force numbering 26,000 troops and civilian police of "predominantly African character" under a unified UN command.

Among the two million-plus Darfurian victims of war, hopes are high that the UN will 'save' them by disarming the infamous Janjaweed

This week, 50 villagers were killed in clashes between Arab militias armed by the government

militia and providing security for them to return safely to their homes.

When the force arrives in stages over the coming six months, they will be disappointed: in essence UNAMID is a conventional peacekeeping force with extra capabilities to robustly defend itself when attacked.

Attention can now turn to the key issues for Darfur: a strategy for security and an inclusive peace deal. Effective peacekeeping in a complex conflict is nine-tenths community liaison and political intelligence. Just this week, at least 50 militiamen and villagers were killed in clashes between two Arab militias armed by the government which are now fighting each other. UNAMID's commander will need to be able to predict and pre-empt such deadly clashes.

Most important are new peace talks, tentatively scheduled for September. The first step is a meeting this weekend in Arusha, Tanzania, at which AU and UN mediators will encourage seven rebel factions to agree on a common negotiating platform. Getting to a deal promises to be a long hard slog.

FIRST POSTED AUGUST 1, 2007

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