The Army prepares for an uncertain future

The armed forces have to adapt to the challenges of a changing world, says robert fox

In the most radical reshaping of military thinking since the end of the Cold War, senior British commanders are carrying out a thorough rethink of British military operations. Starting with the missions in Iraq and Afghanistan, the scope of the review will assess strategy for the next two decades.

The emphasis for future operations will be on 'sustainability', providing durable forces for missions that in different forms could last more than a generation - one of the prospects now facing the Army in Afghanistan. Previously the focus had been on providing forces for 'expeditionary' missions, such as those in Iraq and Sierra Leone.

The forces will need flexibility, imagination, and more complex training for a greater variety of key roles than they had to fulfill when Northern Ireland and the threat of the Warsaw Pact dominated the military agenda

In the next two decades, the forces will need flexibility, imagination and complex training

thirty years ago.

Now they have to be prepared for 'hot' missions such as Afghanistan and Sierra Leone, humanitarian assistance, and - a looming concern with the acceleration in global warming - disaster relief. Most critical will be the requirements of counter-terrorist surveillance and pursuit operations at home and abroad.

They will also be required to provide back-up for domestic civil services in the event of medical emergencies. Experts working for the Joint Services Staff College now believe a pandemic such as SARS is probable rather than possible. According to their models more than 60 per cent of medical personnel would be out of action within days in a serious flu attack - a shortfall that would be made up by the forces.

The new approach is being backed by the heads of the services and it will lead to a fundamental rethinking of how we assess the purposes of operations like those now in Helmand in Afghanistan. It will also examine afresh how we got to Iraq, and get out.