Political genius or gambler?
We shall find out soon enough,
says our Westminster insider |
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Should Gordon Brown call a snap autumn election? If he wins, he will be seen as a political genius. If he loses any seats to the Tories he will be seen as a political fool. The stakes could not be higher and he doesn't have long to make up his mind.
Influential advisors are urging him to go to the country as soon as possible, on November 1 or 8. But other old hands in the party are warning him against.
There are compelling reasons to go now. Brown appears to have momentum behind him, with the opinion polls giving him leads of up to 10 points. The Tories are on the back foot, with David Cameron openly admitting he has a fight on his hands.
Crises such as the floods and foot and mouth have helped Brown look like a steady leader. Even the Northern Rock debacle has hardened support behind him. Those wanting |
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him to say yes believe this is the best chance he will ever get to win, as things can only get more difficult.
Arguments for abandoning the idea start with the weather. In dark, cold November it will be more difficult to get the party's vote out.
Labour's opinion poll lead could evaporate, as it did for Harold Wilson in 1970. Indeed, a detailed study of the 35 local by-election results since Brown took office show a nine-point lead for the Tories.
Another big problem is money. The Tories have far more cash, especially in the marginal seats. It only takes a swing of less than two per cent to the Tories to wipe out Brown's Commons majority.
Finally, why bother? Brown can enjoy another two and a half years as PM before he has to call an election.
If he does go for it, he will probably make an announcement after a Commons statement on Iraq on October 8. 
FIRST POSTED OCTOBER 1, 2007
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Brown's high-risk election strategy
