One man can save them from
election disaster – and it’s not
Cameron, says donald malcolm |
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Although the Tories in Blackpool can expect a strong speech from David Cameron - after all, it was his conference performance two years ago that won him the leadership - it would be a minor miracle if it does much to turn round the opinion poll ratings which now heavily favour Gordon Brown.
Instead, Tory hopes are pinned on their former party treasurer Lord Ashcroft, who is in charge of campaigning in the key marginal seats where general elections are won and lost.
Until recently, Labour were masters of the marginals. Their most spectacular result was in 1992 when they pegged back John Major's Commons majority to just 21 even though he had won a popular vote of more than 14m.
But now the boot is on the other foot. Under Ashcroft, the Tories have been exploiting a loophole in the electoral law |
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| Tory hopes are pinned on Lord Ashcroft, who is in charge of campaigning in key marginal seats |
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which means there is no limit on spending at local level, outside the few weeks of the general election campaign when it is limited.
The Tories have developed well-financed organisations in the marginals. And Labour have lacked the resources to fight back thanks to the donations drought caused by the cash-for-honours scandal.
A straight projection of the seven per cent Labour lead in the weekend's Ipsos-MORI poll suggests Labour would take some 20 seats from the Conservatives. But the Tories hope that the Ashcroft marginals machine can save those seats and perhaps even take some of the 20 or so seats Labour hold with wafer-thin majorities. It could make the difference between a general election disaster and a respectable defeat that would provide the springboard for a future tilt at government.
This is undoubtedly one of the factors being weighed by Brown as he decides whether to go for a snap election. And it is one of the few positives in the Tory camp. 
FIRST POSTED OCTOBER 1, 2007
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Cameron has to stop Tory panic
Snap election: Brown mulls the options
