Bhutto’s back - but what happens now?

The ex-Prime Minister’s return is the start of a period of upheaval in Pakistan, says jason burke

Benazir Bhutto is back. Some 130 of her supporters have been killed in a horrific double-suicide bombing. So what happens now?

Firstly, Bhutto is very unlikely to leave the country. She knew there was a risk. Her return has been painstakingly prepared through difficult negotiations with President Pervez Musharraf, and her entire political future is at stake.

If she returns to Dubai or London, she will leave the ground clear for her arch-rival Nawaz Sharif, the leader of the Pakistan Muslim League. With legislative elections less than three months away, that is something she cannot afford to do.

Instead, the bombing will reinforce a reorientation of political alliances and power bases in the country. The deal done with Musharraf - his resignation as army chief, her amnesty for corruption charges - will allow

The deal done with Musharraf will allow Bhutto to align herself alongside the army as a force for moderation

Bhutto to align herself alongside the army as a force for moderation and openness.

Both Bhutto and the general, whom she helped secure a five-year mandate as president two weeks ago, have solid pro-Western credentials. Add a variety of other parties that remain loyal to Musharraf and you have the moderate, pro-Western wing of Pakistani politics.

Nawaz Sharif is expected back soon. His party has stronger religious credentials than either Bhutto or Musharraf and deeper roots in the critical urban lower-middle classes. Sharif will form the opposition, possibly with Imran Khan, who has solid Muslim and nationalist sentiments.

It will be a quasi-Islamist, loudly nationalist alliance that will articulate the attitude of the Pakistani street, suffering from inflation and a severe paranoia about US interference, better than anyone else. They will have the best slogans, if not the best policies to pull Pakistan out of the mess it is in.

What is certain it that the next three months will be anything other than quiet.