robert fox explains why the
risk of civil war in Pakistan
threatens worldwide repercussions
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In his broadcast announcing Pakistan's emergency, Pervez
Musharraf quoted Abraham Lincoln's famous letter of March 1864 about
the need to preserve nation and government before the constitution.
"Was it possible to lose the Nation and yet preserve the
Constitution?" Lincoln wrote.
Musharraf, and many other Pakistanis beside, now believe his
country is on the cusp of civil war.
This is the terrible point that the messages of mild
condemnation from the likes of Condoleezza Rice and David Miliband
have failed to convey. The prospects for the 175m Pakistanis
are dreadful. And there is a deadly message too for closely associated
communities and nations like Britain.
For Musharraf it is a last desperate throw. Now he has to rely on the
army, which is badly split between reformers, Islamists and active
supporters of the Taliban. |
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| Implosion in Pakistan could lead to a Taliban regime with a nuclear
arsenal |
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With pro-Taliban and pro-al-Qaeda organisations now mushrooming in the frontier provinces of the Federally Administered
Tribal Areas, the
troubles in Pakistan will help the Taliban now fighting the British
and their Nato allies across southern Afghanistan. The Taliban are
making huge gains outside the traditional Pashtun areas, and deep into
Punjab. Furthermore Pakistan and Iran both face a major insurrection
in Baluchistan.
For Britain, the fanning of violence and tension in Pakistan is sure
to have an effect among extreme Islamist sympathisers in the UK itself
- the leaders of both the July 7 and 21 London bomb plots appear to have
received support and training from Pakistan.
Finally, the potential implosion of Pakistan throws into strange light the
obsession of Dick Cheney and supporters like Elliott Cohen for bombing
Iran.
Iran may get a nuclear device inside ten years - possibly.
Implosion in Pakistan could lead to a Taliban regime with a nuclear
arsenal up and running now. For this Bush, Brown and Sarkozy seem totally unprepared.
FIRST POSTED NOVEMBER 5, 2007
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Protests against President Musharraf's introduction of emergency rule
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