Annapolis: from summit to meeting

The First Post at-a-glance guide to the Middle East meeting in Annapolis on November 27

Who will be there?
Ehud Olmert, the Israeli Prime Minister, and Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president. George W Bush will host a pre-Annapolis meeting between the two men on November 26 at the White House. Other Middle East countries going to Annapolis - just down the road from Washington DC - on November 27 include Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Syria only decided to attend at the eleventh hour when they received confirmation that the Golan Heights were on the agenda.

Who won't be there?
Crucially Hamas, who control the Gaza Strip, will have no representation. Meanwhile, Iran has criticised the conference.

What are people saying?
Aside from Abbas, whose optimism may derive from having nothing to lose, expectations are almost universally low. The conference, originally scheduled to last several days, has been reduced to one. Though Israel is releasing several hundred prisoners as a gesture of goodwill, commentators in the region seem to feel they've seen it all before.

The best case scenario would see a Palestinian state established by the end of the Bush administration in January 2009

Targets
The best case scenario would see the establishment of Palestinian statehood by the end of the Bush administration in January 2009. Mahmoud Abbas has said he thinks this can happen. Though there will be no formal negotiations at Annapolis, the status of Jerusalem, border locations, the removal of Israeli settlements on the West Bank and the rights of refugees will all be discussed, with the intention of drawing up a 'road map' for future talks. Condoleezza Rice has said that work towards "two states for two people" will begin "the day after" Annapolis.

Pitfalls
Much can go wrong. The failed Camp David peace talks in 2000 led to a renewed wave of violence. Crucially, all three major players are politically weak. Olmert, though he holds a strong domestic majority, has seen his reputation plummet after war with Lebanon and corruption scandals. Abbas's Fatah party controls only the West Bank and is constantly on the brink of civil war against the rival Hamas faction. As for Bush, shuffling to the end of an ignominious second term, he has been accused of hurrying these talks through in a desperate bid for a foreign policy legacy outside of Iraq.

FIRST POSTED NOVEMBER 26, 2007