 surprisingly, the largest number of bombings and killings is around Jalalabad in southeast Afghanistan. This is the main gateway from the tribal areas in Pakistan, which are now dominated by Taliban sympathisers and their al-Qaeda allies.
Taliban recruiting and training has shown a sharp increase since Pervez Musharraf ran into difficulties this summer when he sacked his chief justice and sent in his troops against the militants in Islamabad's Red Mosque, symbol of extremism.
With the return of the exiled former prime minister Nawaz Sharif to contest the upcoming elections in Pakistan - he received a rapturous welcome at Lahore airport yesterday - it is likely that whatever government succeeds Musharraf's rule will have a strong Islamist complexion. Sharif stands for Islamic nationalism, and is likely to strike a deal with at least some Taliban elements.
Even if the Pakistan army again tries to annul the elections and brings back emergency rule, it too is likely to play to its Islamist wing (harking back to the Islamist |
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| It is likely that whatever government succeeds Musharraf's rule will have a strong Islamist complexion |
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military dictatorship of General Zia al Huq) and cut a deal with some of the Taliban leadership. This must be behind Karzai's thinking.
America will try to thwart any accommodation with Taliban elements, nationally or locally, in Afghanistan. Its response to the latest violence is to hint that it will send more special forces units across the border to 'root out' Taliban and al Qaeda training camps in the tribal areas of Pakistan. This is risky and far from certain to succeed.
In last week's report, the Senlis Council warned Nato to double the number of its troops in Afghanistan, or risk Kabul falling to Taliban forces by the spring. But Nato is unwilling or unable to produce a fighting force on this scale, despite repeated appeals from its secretariat and the US leadership for the allies to send more troops. Indeed some, like the Netherlands and Canada, are suggesting they may cut back.
It looks as if the Taliban could be back in Kabul well before the spring. 
FIRST POSTED NOVEMBER 26, 2007
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