But two-and-a-half more years is a very long time in politics, argues donald malcolm |
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Back in August, Tory gloom was such that David Cameron had to be persuaded to go ahead with his family holiday in Brittany. Party officials apparently advised him he couldn't start a fightback unless there was a clear break in his public appearances.
Now, four months on, Cameron's fortunes have changed in a way he could never have predicted. For the first time in well over a decade, Tory hopes of an outright victory at the next election are more than moonshine. Double-digit leads in the latest opinion polls would translate into an overall Tory majority in the Commons.
True to one of the oldest adages in politics - that Governments lose elections - the Tories have had to do little themselves to bring it about (if we discount rumours that it was a team of investigators paid for by Tory fundraiser Lord Ashcroft that uncovered the
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| Tory hopes of an outright victory at the next election are more than moonshine |
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Labour's proxy donor scam). Also, Labour have played their ace - a change of leader. What else do they have to offer?
Yet while Brown may look like a 'wounded beast', he does not have to call a general election until May 2010. That allows plenty of time for the economy to dip and recover.
Cameron will have the whip hand in negotiations to produce a deal on party funding. His proposal for a £50,000 cap on individual donations looks even-handed but favours his party. Labour has a small number of rich backers prepared to stump up millions each, while the number of moderately rich Tories good for a few grand is much larger.
But can he keep up the momentum? And can he count on Labour continuing to score own goals for another two and half
years?
It is the economy that will decide Brown and Cameron's fate. Because the Chancellor is involved, both Northern Rock and Discgate have been presented incorrectly as 'economic' issues. But neither has yet led to real people losing real money. When that happens, Cameron really will be in with a chance. 
FIRST POSTED DECEMBER 3, 2007
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