Estimate has dealt a temporarily fatal blow - temporary, because the legions of fear always find substitutes - to the perception of Iran as the Israelis' great enemy.
The defence and security establishment, the Israel Defence Forces, the Shin Bet and the Mossad, like every military organisation in the world, has never existed without a designated Satan: Egypt, Libya, Syria, Palestinians, Al-Qaeda, Iran. Each of these enemies has enabled the Israeli military establishment to recruit tremendous economic resources, to create panic and to make it easy for the public to forget blunders and failures. Now it is hard times for the corporation of fear and anxiety, because its glory has also passed.
The 2006 Lebanon War is still under investigation by the Winograd commission even though the interest in its report has already faded. In the south of Israel, the drizzle of primitive Qassam rockets fired by Hamas in the Gaza Strip continues. But Prime Minister Ehud Olmert (right), a skilled lawyer and survivor, neither a gentleman nor an
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| Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, a skilled lawyer and survivor, is not eager for a large military action |
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officer, is not eager for a large military action. He no longer has faith in the army, nor in his Defence Minister Ehud Barak, who is also his political rival.
Olmert was severely burned by the Lebanon War at the start of his term in office and anyone who has been scalded, as they say here, blows even on a watermelon to cool it off. He prefers the spectacle of chattering peace conferences that prolong his political life expectancy to any military operation.
For a while, it might seem as though dialogue has returned to the stage. But knowing the Middle East and its cyclical rituals as I do, it is clear to me that not much time remains before we discover a new Satan.
In the blink of an eye the military option will be back on the agenda and my son, like his father and grandfather before him, will have to be a soldier for three years, and not a rock musician.
FIRST POSTED DECEMBER 17, 2007
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