Tzipi Livni closes gap but Bibi remains election favourite

Monday, February 9. With the future of the Palestinians in Gaza and the state of Israel's security remaining the predominant issues among voters, the centre-right opposition leader Benjamin 'Bibi' Netanyahu remains the favourite to win the Israeli general election on Tuesday, although Tzipi Livni, the candidate from the incumbent Kadima party, has been buoyed by a resurgence of support in recent polls.

As campaigning entered its final day, Netanyahu remained hardline on the subject of Gaza: the IDF had not gone far enough in quashing Hamas in the recent 22-day war, and there is no choice but to uproot the Iranian-backed regime in Gaza. Livni said she would adopt a softer stance and work to keep peace talks progressing. "I'm not prepared to be a prime minister whose hands are tied in a government without any peace process. That is an intolerable price," she said.

Writing in the Guardian, Rory McCarthy says that ahead of Tuesday's election there is still an unusual level of undecided voters, which suggests "a broader frustration with many of the country's political leaders. Both Netanyahu and Ehud Barak, head of the Labour party, have been prime minister in the past and were generally regarded as unpopular. Livni has been criticised for lacking experience."

Writing in the same paper, Seth Freedman is not surprised that Israel is turning to the right. Such a shift is "in line with an international pattern that has seen Russians, Italians, French and others seek solace in the arms of hardline leaders," he says. "The fact that the Palestinians voted in similar fashion during their last election has, of course, played a large part in Israeli's rightwards lurch."

In an editorial today, the Independent says that the elections will be vital for the future of peace in the Middle East. "However similar Livni's and Netanyahu's rhetoric, the gulf is wide. Kadima is committed to a two-state solution of the Israel/Palestine imbroglio while Netanyahu opposes a Palestinian state ever emerging on the West Bank and condemns all talk of a return to 1967 borders."

Furthermore, Barack Obama's White House has given indications that it will no longer support Israel in the apparently unconditional way it did under George Bush, and "Washington clearly wants to see some movement over a dispute that has bedevilled its relations with much of the world, far beyond the Middle East. There are signs that Israeli voters appreciate this, which is why the gap between Livni and Netanyahu has narrowed, with floating voters tilting towards Kadima and the peace option."

The elections have also witnessed the rise of a new figure on Israel's political landscape. Avigdor Lieberman looks likely to take a seat in the Knesset as the head of the third largest party, making him the first point of contact for either Netanyahu or Livni should they win the election and be required to form a coalition. Such a move would not be difficult for Netanyahu to consider as Lieberman is a fierce right-winger. However, if Livni approaches the 50-year-old for support, she risks losing friends in Israel's left-wing minority parties.

The election campaign has taken place while violence continues in the wake of Israel's offensive in Gaza, which ended three weeks ago. Early on Monday Israeli forces killed a Palestinian fighter in the south of the Gaza strip and IDF planes bombed two suspected militant positions in the region. The day before, a new barrage of missiles launched from Gaza struck targets in Israel causing damage but no deaths.

Such attacks are believed to be a deliberate effort by Hamas to encourage the election of a right-wing government that will not try to further peace talks with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas – a leader Hamas regards as a rival.

FIRST POSTED FEBRUARY 9, 2009