Weather holds key as Israelis cast their votes

Tuesday, February 10. With the recent conflict in Gaza still the dominant issue, Israelis went to the polls today to elect their new government. There were fears that today's stormy weather and a perceived lack of inspirational candidates would result in the worst voter turnout in history: lower than the 63.2 per cent in 2006.

Going into today's elections, the incumbent Kadima party's candidate Tzipi Livni (pictured) and Likud's Benjamin 'Bibi' Netanyahu were neck and neck in the polls with as much as a fifth of the electorate saying they were undecided. Likely to come third is right-wing firebrand Avigdor Lieberman from the Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel is our home) party. Casting his vote today, Lieberman called the poor weather a "blessing" and suggested that it would help his cause. "Our people will come out and vote even if there's a hurricane," he said.

In Tel Aviv, Livni urged voters to brave the conditions for the sake of hope. "I have just done what I want every citizen in Israel to do – get out of the house, rain or not, cold or hot, go to the polling station, go into the booth, close your eyes, and vote, not out of fear or despair, and think about hope." Meanwhile in Jerusalem, Netanyahu predicted "a good victory".

After the formal announcement of the election results next week, Israeli president Shimon Peres will call on one of the parties to form a coalition within 42 days. Usually the president will call on the party elected with the largest number of seats although he may choose to offer the chance of a coalition to the party he believes is most likely to find enough allies to form a majority government. The system means that, theoretically, even if Netanyahu wins today's election, he could still find himself out of power.

Writing in the Guardian, Jonathan Freedland says that if he is elected, Netanyahu is likely to be less hawkish than he has been on the campaign trail. "Were he [Netanyahu] to return to the prime minister's office, few believe he would maintain that hard line. First, he will look leftward for coalition partners, preferring to be the hawk in a centrist government than the centrist in an ultra-hawkish one."

Freedland continues: "He knows that his relationship with the US – which matters more to Israeli leaders than almost anything else – will be doomed if he becomes the prisoner of rightist parties, constantly demanding settlement expansion and the like."

In the New York Times, Isabel Kershner sees Barack Obama as an important but invisible presence in today's voting. "For American foreign policy, the elections in Israel have seemed particularly important, given how early they are taking place in the administration of President Obama, who has signaled a different approach to the Middle East from his predecessor. But the uncertainty over who might win, and whether any new coalition would be more centrist or right wing, has made it difficult to forecast directions in relations between America and Israel."

Writing for the New Republic, Marty Peretz says that the recent conflict in Gaza is at the forefront of people's minds. Livni's Kadima is "a party of opportunists and it's anybody's guess where it stands," he says. Netanyahu remains the likely winner, even if "in some circles the mere mention of Bibi's name gets people to foam at the mouth," says Peretz. "These particular foamers dislike Bibi because he doesn't endlessly utter those fatuous verities about the Palestinians being ready for peace. They are not."

FIRST POSTED FEBRUARY 10, 2009