What’s in the way of a ceasefire?

As fighting on the ground in Gaza enters its fourth day, what are the key demands of the Israelis and Hamas that need to be met before a ceasefire can be brokered?

Israel has three key demands: an end to Palestinian rocket attacks, international supervision of any truce, and a halt to Hamas rearmament through the smuggling tunnels between Egypt and Gaza.

Hamas has two demands: that Israel ends its attacks and that the border crossings are opened to allow vital food, water and fuel to enter Gaza.

So, what stands in the way of a ceasefire?

The big stumbling block is Israel's refusal to do business with Hamas which it sees as a terrorist organisation and does not recognise as a legitimate ruling authority in Gaza.

If Israel is going to negotiate the reopening of the border crossings as a quid pro quo for Hamas shutting down the smuggling tunnels – which is a big IF anyway - it wants to negotiate with the international community and the Ramallah-based Palestinian Authority, not Hamas. The US and the EU also regard Hamas as a terrorist group, while Britain regards only its military wing, the Izz al-Din al-Quassam, as such.

The majority at the United Nations are keen to police the conflict and member states have drafted resolutions to help it do so. However, the US is usually unwilling to co-operate, refusing to condemn Israel's actions.

Even if the UN were free to send an international peacekeeping force to Gaza (which Israel does not oppose), the Palestinians would want a similar force installed in the West Bank (which Israel would oppose).

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said after his talks with French President Nicolas Sarkozy on Monday that Hamas's access to arms through the smuggling tunnels was the "make or break issue".

Speaking from Jerusalem on Tuesday, Tony Blair, the special Middle East envoy for the Quartet - comprising the EU, the UN, Russia and America - said he thought it was possible to bring "a quick halt" to the fighting if Hamas was prevented from accessing further weapons.

"I think the circumstances focus very much around clear action to cut off the supply of arms and money from the tunnels that go from Egypt into Gaza. I think if there were strong, clear, definitive action on that, that would give us the best context to get an immediate ceasefire and to start to change the situation," Blair said.

Following his meetings with Israeli politicians, including foreign minister Tzipi Livni ,about how the flow of arms into Gaza could be controlled, Blair said: "The question is can this be put together in such a way that we get the immediate ceasefire that people want to see? And then you have to address in the longer term the question of how you get Palestinian unity."

Blair also said that it was down to Hamas to realise the damage the war was doing to Palestinian people and bring an end to the conflict by preventing Qassam and Grad rockets being launched from Gaza.

"I hope very much that they [Hamas] recognise that this is a terrible event for the people of Gaza, that the suffering is appalling and that the only way to stop it and to stop it definitively is to have a situation where the rockets stop coming out of Gaza."

FIRST POSTED JANUARY 6, 2009