Obama threatens McCain states

With less than three weeks of the presidential campaign to go, the Republicans are finding themselves on the defensive in the deep-red states that had been thought of as in the bag for their candidate John McCain in the November 4 general election poll.

Barack Obama has turned the races competitive in states such as Kentucky, Arkansas and West Virginia, where George Bush romped home with double-digit leads over John Kerry in the 2004 elections but where McCain is now facing an uncomfortable time to hold on to.

Obama has also managed to turn supposedly tight races in states that went Kerry's way by a small margin last time around: in Pennsylvania, which Kerry took by just 2.5 per cent, the Democratic senator for Illinois is now 14 per cent ahead, while in New Hampshire, a crucial state for McCain, Obama has added ten points to Kerry's winning margin of 1.3 per cent.

In the real battlefield states, which Bush won last time out and which Obama must gain to win the election, the Democrats are comfotably ahead. Iowa, which went Republican by 0.7 per cent in 2004 is now safe Democrat at 11.8 per cent, while in the bellwether state of Florida Obama has reversed a five per cent Bush lead.

Obama is easily outspending the McCain campaign, having opted out of receiving federal funds and subsequently raised close to $500m over the race as a whole.