A Labour victory in Glenrothes: from unthinkable to do-able

The idea of Labour holding onto the Glenrothes seat in next Thursday’s by-election was virtually unthinkable a few weeks ago. Indeed, the date of the by-election was chosen so that Labour’s humiliating defeat (the party won the Fife constituency by more than 10,000 at the last general election) would at least be smothered by the fall-out from Tuesday's presidential election in the United States.

The irony is that, because of Gordon Brown's unlikely comeback in his new guise of international credit crunch saviour, Labour could actually win Glenrothes and have its surprise victory overshadowed by the election (presumably) of America's first black president.

There's still a way to go, however. Were the by-election to take place today, the Scottish National Party would probably squeak home over Labour by 1,500 to 2,000 votes. But with polling still six days away, and Labour continuing to make progress in winning back disillusioned voters, a few hundred ballot papers either way could make all the difference.

The bookmakers Ladbrokes summed up the knife-edge nature of the contest yesterday when they quoted the SNP as 8/11 favourites to win, but cut Labour’s odds to evens.

Certainly Labour canvassers report a distinct change in mood on the doorsteps in Glenrothes. One minister told the Mole: "In September we were dead and buried. Now they are listening to us at least."

It is not just the Brown bounce that has had an effect. There's also the fact that Brown is a local lad. The constituency adjoins Brown's own - Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath - and the Labour candidate, 59-year-old Lindsay Roy, is the head teacher of Brown's old school, Kirkcaldy High.

Initially, that made the apparent near-certain defeat for Labour a potential humiliation for the PM. If he couldn't win elections in his own backyard, what chance did Labour under his leadership have of holding on to marginal seats like Crawley, Rugby and Reading at the next general election?

But now Brown is milking his local links. He has already visited twice (as has his wife Sarah, who is slowly edging into the political limelight) and a third visit is planned before polling next Thursday. This goes against the convention that prime ministers don't do by-elections and the Mole understands that he took the decision to visit against the advice of some Labour officials who feared it could rebound on the PM.

But he doubtless took the view that the stakes are too high - underlined by the astonishing nine visits so far to Glenrothes by the SNP leader Alex Salmond.

Nationally, Labour’s fortunes continue to recover steadily but slowly, with several opinion polls putting David Cameron in Downing Street, but with a tiny majority or as head of a minority government. A YouGov survey in today's Daily Telegraph suggests Cameron's lead over Brown has shrunk considerably. The new poll puts his lead at nine points (42 per cent to 33 per cent); a similar poll at the end of May had Cameron ahead by a stunning 24 points.

THE MOLE: BY-ELECTION

FIRST POSTED OCTOBER 31, 2008