Boris’s smoking gun – and other blunders – give Labour a boost

Some good news for Gordon Brown on his lonesome trip to America... Labour might hold on to London after all. A fortnight ago all the signs pointed to a Conservative victory, with blond bombshell Boris Johnson set to oust Mayor Ken after eight years in office. But this was dependent on the Tory spin-meisters - led by Aussie Lynton Crosbie - keeping Boris on a tight leash.

As some in Tory circles have been predicting, it couldn't last. A series of four new blunders have meant Boris's campaign - and his polling figures - are not looking so hot.

First, having put crime and punishment at the top of his agenda, Johnson was caught out by a Labour backbencher who asked why, back in 2003, he had voted against a Bill proposing mandatory jail sentences for youths discovered carrying guns. Wasn't this in direct contrast with his strongly held beliefs on gun crime? Er, yes...

Second, again on the crime front, Scotland Yard figures released this week showed a six per cent drop in crime in the capital over the past year, and Livingstone is able to claim that it was only by taking on the Tory opposition at County Hall that he was able to get extra funding for more police.

Third, Boris has been caught out by a citizen journalist after miscalculating the cost of replacing the unpopular bendy buses - especially unpopular with cyclists, ie. you-know-who - with new Routemasters and a return to bus conductors. Boris originally claimed his high-profile policy would cost £8m; yesterday he was forced to admit that actually the cost was closer to £100m.

Fourth, having been let loose on an online Q&A organised by the Sun, Boris has called today for London boroughs to have the power to overturn the smoking ban. Not only has this allowed Livingstone to be pious about the health risks, but the mayor's camp has trawled through the MPs' register of interests and found that Boris took a fee of £5,000 - £10,000 from a tobacco lobby group after a speaking engagement in June 2007.

According to the latest YouGov poll, Boris's lead over Ken has halved in the space of a week. If Livingstone can pull ahead before the May 1 election, less than a fortnight away, it will be a huge boon to Brown. Equally, a loss for Boris will be seen as another "Ealing moment" for David Cameron. The Ealing-Southall by-election was the last occasion on which Cameron personally chose the Tory candidate and the public didn't go for him.

THE MOLE: LONDON ELECTION

FIRST POSTED APRIL 17, 2008