Brown flies home for summer party - but who’s in a party mood?

Following his speech to the Knesset, Gordon Brown flies back from Jerusalem to host a summer party this evening for Labour MPs at Number 10. Normally, it would be an easy-going drinks party which would give the PM the opportunity to share a few jokes over the Sauvignon with the sychophants who turn up with their spouses.

But this year there’s an elephant in the room: can Gordon survive the next few months in office, starting with Thursday's crucial by-election in Glasgow East where a 13,000 Labour majority at the last election is at risk, such is the party's lack of popularity?

An appeal has gone out to Labour MPs saying: "We urgently need volunteers for the last week of campaigning". Ministers have flooded the seat, but only a few backbenchers - including Frank Dobson, a popular street campaigner who has never shied away from telling successive PMs what he really thought about them - have made the journey north.

Some of those attending Brown's party tonight are convinced that Gordon cannot last, whatever the result in Glasgow East. One MP who hankers for the return of Tony Blair said: "There comes a point when the public stop listening, and make up their minds. That has happened with Brown. It doesn't matter what he does now, he can't put it back together."

The threat that Britain could be heading for recession and 2m unemployed - leading to higher public spending on benefits the country can ill-afford - should be focusing minds this evening. Public spending was settled for three years, but the economic downturn could slash expected receipts from stamp duty by £5bn and other revenues by £10bn, only partly off-set by an estimated £4bn windfall from oil duty.

Cabinet Ministers were told last week there is no more in the kitty for any increases in spending. But the MoD, for instance, is worrying about spiraling oil costs for running ships, planes and tanks. Justice Secretary Jack Straw may want to bid for more prisons if judges start jailing more people for carrying knives. And Education Secretary Ed Balls may also want more money for schools. But the Chief Secretary to the Treasury has the purse firmly shut, even though she is his wife, Yvette Cooper.

Brown could be forgiven if his brow is furrowed more deeply than usual tonight. He knows it can only get worse before it gets better - and tomorrow night he has to host the Number 10 summer party for the press.

THE MOLE: PM UNDER SIEGE

FIRST POSTED JULY 21, 2008