It’s ‘change or bust’ for Brown as Tories crush Labour in Crewe

Gordon Brown's leadership is at crisis point after a crushing defeat for Labour in the Crewe and Nantwich by-election with a swing of almost 18 per cent to the Conservatives. It puts David Cameron on course for power.

The result has caused panic in Labour's ranks while Cameron's team believe it marks a tipping point in the history of the Labour Party. Cameron, who was heading to Crewe for the victory celebrations this morning before going to Ayr for the Scottish Tory conference, said the massive swing to his party marked the "end of New Labour". But he added: "I know we still have a long way to go."

It is the first time the Conservatives have won a seat from Labour in a by-election for three decades and it has immediately led to left-wing Labour calls for Brown to change direction, or quit. More worrying for Brown, centre-left Labour MPs are also today planning to issue a call for change by Brown.

Brown is expected to use a Cabinet reshuffle before the summer to try to regain his grip, but his authority over the economy has been damaged - possibly irreparably - by a succession of blows, culminating in the 10p tax debacle. Even Labour's deputy leader, Harriet Harman, speaking on the Today programme this morning, had to admit voters were protesting over their "family finances".

George Osborne, Cameron's most senior lieutenant, claimed Labour had abandoned the centre-ground with its campaign in Crewe and Nantwich. Accusing Labour of running their campaign on class war and using 'dog whistle' fears on immigration, the Shadow Chancellor said: "There is a new nasty party in British politics and it is the Labour Party."

Cameron is now tipped to call the by-election in Henley in late June for the seat held by Boris Johnson, the new Tory Mayor of London, to maintain his momentum towards 10 Downing Street.

The Crewe result means Brown will now delay the general election for two years until the last possible moment, in the summer of 2010. There is little appetite now for a leadership challenge, but some Labour MPs say he could face a challenge for the leadership by the end of the year, if the Tories are still seen to be heading for victory.

The Tory candidate Edward Timpson, a 34-year-old barrister, took 20,539 votes, reversing a Labour majority of over 7,000 to give the Tories a majority of 8,000 over Labour. The Conservative share of the vote was 49 per cent, with Labour on 31 per cent, and the Liberal Democrats on 15 per cent. If the 17.6 per cent swing to the Tories were repeated in a general election, it would give Cameron an outright victory.

John McDonnell MP, chair of the left-wing grassroots grouping, the Labour Representation Committee, said: “It would be an immense misreading of the situation for New Labour Ministers to dismiss this result as simply mid-term blues. The Prime Minister's re-launch after the disaster of the local election results has proved to be totally ineffective.

"This result demonstrates the overwhelming anger and contempt in which New Labour is now held by our traditional supporters. The lesson for the Labour Party is that it is change or bust.”

THE MOLE: BY-ELECTION RESULT

FIRST POSTED MAY 23, 2008