Brown needs to sound contrite – but can he do it?

Deep in the Brown Bunker, Gordon is learning his lines: "I'm listening and I'm learning." The PM's spin doctor, Stephen Carter, is advising his boss to sound contrite after the worst set of Labour results since the 1960s.

By 1pm today, the party had lost more than 270 seats, with the Tories gaining more than 190. Yesterday, in my election guide (see below) I had 200 losses as a worst-case scenario for the Labour party. Now it's fast approaching 300.

Things will deteriorate further if this evening Boris Johnson snatches the crown of London Mayor from worn-out ex-socialist Ken Livingstone. Word in Westminster at lunchtime today was that even members of the Livingstone camp were acknowledging a Johnson victory.

So, there is plenty for Brown to be humble about. The only problem is Brown does not 'do humble'. He does not sound genuine with contrition, especially over his abolition of the 10p tax band which has done most of the damage to Labour's claims to be the party of social justice.

Rhodri Morgan, the First Minister in Wales, could barely conceal his anger at being on the receiving end of the hammering Labour received in the Valleys yesterday. Morgan rightly pointed out that in the Principality, the 10p tax issue hit Labour particularly hard, because many in Wales are on low incomes. And it is Brown who did it.

Brown's trusted lieutenant Ed Balls and his bag carrier Ian Austin are more inclined to go back onto the attack at Old Etonian Tory leader David Cameron. So Brown is preparing for 24 hours of 'mea culpa' followed by a relaunch - his third since taking office - with a draft Queen's Speech to show he has ideas for the future.

The problem facing Brown is that under his leadership, the Labour coalition that Tony Blair held together is beginning to fragment. The Blairites are sitting on their hands for the moment, but secretly wish David Miliband had been prepared to run as their champion against the Brooding Presence.

Labour MPs on the left are furious with Brown for doubling the tax on the lowest paid, while going 'soft' on fat cats in the City over capital gains tax. They are angry about his failure to stop the closure of the post offices. They do not like his drive to bring more private companies into the delivery of primary health care. And they do not believe he is serious about green issues.

Chief Whip Geoff 'Buff' Hoon is also losing discipline in the ranks. Largely unnoticed because of the elections, Brown suffered the biggest rebellion of his premiership on the eve of the polls when 38 Labour MPs voted against the Government on renewable energy.

The ship is heading for the rocks and the crew are ready to mutiny.

THE MOLE: LOCAL ELECTION RESULTS

FIRST POSTED MAY 2, 2008