Brown rejects the chance to pull out of Iraq and save his skin

Rising hopes among Labour MPs that Gordon Brown would snatch his leadership from the fire next week by announcing a pull-out of British troops from Iraq have turned to dust like everything else he touches at the moment.

There had been expectations in some quarters that he would announce the troop withdrawal in his long-promised statement to Parliament before the MPs pack their bags next week for the summer. He even had the excuse that the Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki had asked for a timetable for the removal of foreign troops.

But the PM has rejected that. “I cannot set an artificial timetable,” he said at his monthly press conference in Downing Street yesterday. His remarks mean British troops will remain in Iraq for the foreseeable future.

Stationed at Basra airport, outside the city, the remaining troops have been “mentoring and training" the Iraqi troops who are supposed to replace them. But there are claims that the American General David Petraeus told Ministry of Defence operations chief Lt Gen Nick Houghton that commanders in Basra have failed to train them properly by not embedding officers with the Iraqi army.

There has long been tension between the US and the Brits over Iraq, and the US policy on withdrawals is confused to say the least. George Bush is reported to be urging Republican presidential candidate John McCain to be more radical in withdrawing troops to wrong-foot Barack Obama, who is also changing his tune and dropping hints like confetti that he won't order the big draw-downs he initially promised while campaigning for the Democratic nomination, because he is frightened of being portrayed as weak in the November presidential election.

Brown seems have responded to the American confusion by more dithering in Downing Street. Asked yesterday whether he wanted to be the Prime Minister who announced the withdrawal of British troops from Iraq, Brown said Britain had to honour its responsibilities in Iraq.

The British Army, he said, would have to train up Iraqi forces, restore local democracy in Basra after local elections in November or December, and develop the economy of Basra. Only after all that could they move to handing over their base at Basra airport. “We hold the local airport and we want to transfer it to civilian use,” he said, giving not the slightest hint that it was going to be one day soon.

A Commons motion has been tabled signed by nine MPs including Tory Peter Bottomley urging Brown to announce a timetable for withdrawal of troops. It was led by Ian Gibson, a Labour MP who said Brown could "transform" his leadership if he pulled troops out of Iraq. Gibson was deflated by Brown's remarks yesterday. "I find his comments surprising because I have not heard any convincing argument to justify keeping troops in Iraq indefinitely," he said.

Sir Jock Stirrup, the Chief of the Defence Staff, has privately told Brown that he can reduce the number of British forces from the current total of over 4,000 to 3,500 but if he goes below that number, they would not be able to properly defend themselves at Basra airport. So it's either stay, or pull them all out, no half-measures. "Any decision to withdraw troops from Iraq would be a political decision," says Stirrup.

Iraq is likely to be high on the agenda when Barack Obama drops by Downing Street for a fireside chat with Brown, now scheduled for July 25. Before then, Brown is expected to visit the Middle East, but any hopes among Labour backbenchers of him making a bold move in Basra to save his leadership are blowing in the wind.

THE MOLE: IRAQ

FIRST POSTED JULY 15, 2008