Brown will not get global deal – but he will get a grinning group photo

Amid some of the greatest hype and tightest security seen for decades, London has finally been hit by the G20. But after all the grand talk and heightened expectations, will it end up being the New Deal or the No Deal summit?

Gordon Brown and his spinners have sensibly dropped all the original talk of a Blobal Deal, or a Bretton Woods MkII, at which a massive co-ordinated global fiscal stimulus would be agreed, as it became clear there simply wasn't the political unity required to pull off such an outcome. All the talk now seems to be about how significant it is that the leaders are even meeting at all - in other words the symbolism is as important as the substance.

Meanwhile, French President Sarkozy has been the first to "do a Maggie Thatcher" and threaten to walk out if he doesn't get what he wants. Which is a sure-fire sign that he is pretty confident he will get what he wants - primarily a tough new global financial regulatory regime.

Then there are the Chinese and Indian governments who, particularly in China's case, have the real muscle to determine how the rest of the world comes out of this recession. And it seems their agenda centres around demands for a large boost for the IMF.

All of this could be overshadowed - if the numerous demonstrations planned for the capital erupt into violence and the police react in the heavy-handed way many are already claiming is planned.

And then, of course, there is Barack Obama. If there was nothing else going on, the mere fact that the President is in London and has put Gordon Brown top of his "must visit" list would be enough to keep the media happy for days. This is the President's first big international gig and will go a long way towards settling his image with the rest of the world. So he had better be good.

There will, therefore, be plenty of glitz, loads of drama and a great deal of tough, down-to-the-wire negotiating over the next 48 hours. Well, perhaps not the last bit. The truth is a touch more mundane.

Most of the work has already been done by officials in the weeks leading up to the summit, as a draft communique showed earlier in the week. Leaders seldom get into real, nitty-gritty negotiating at these bashes; they are there to put their signatures on the bottom of the final document then return home claiming victory.

So, for example, while we know the big fiscal stimulus is a non-starter, we can also be pretty sure that there will be deals on financial regulation (in other words, Sarko will get his way), a boost for the IMF and a clampdown on tax havens.

That does not mean, of course, that there will not be some more grandstanding and threats to stymie the whole affair along the way - not to mention some high-flown rhetoric. But rest assured, a deal will be done, the group photographs of grinning premiers will be taken and every leader will claim victory and trumpet their own part in saving the world.

THE MOLE: G20 SUMMIT

FIRST POSTED APRIL 1, 2009