Could Brown sack Darling and bring in Vince Cable?

What will Gordon Brown do if the bank bail-out doesn't work? One answer being put forward in Blairite circles yesterday is that the Prime Minister will dump his ultra-loyal Chancellor Alistair Darling - and bring in Vince Cable as a part of a deal with the Liberal Democrats. It may sound extraordinary, but the Mole heard it more than once yesterday.

The Lib Dem Treasury spokesman's stock at Westminster is sky-high. Like some biblical prophet, Cable has long been warning of the financial crisis that has now engulfed the British economy. He was, for instance, one of the first to come up with the idea of nationalising Northern Rock.

Would Brown do it? Those advancing the idea reckon that his current mantra that he will do "whatever it takes" is a political as well as an economic statement. And he has form in this area.

In the salad days of his administration, as he sought to fulfil his promise of creating a Government of All the Talents (GOAT), he offered a Cabinet post to former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown. He was rebuffed after Ashdown consulted the Lib Dems' acting leader - Vince Cable. They reckoned it was born of pure political calculation.

But the current crisis - with the government in effect on economic 'war footing' - would make it much harder for the Lib Dems to say no to an offer of running the Treasury. Anyone who doubts that should listen again to yesterday's Prime Minister Questions where the patently sincere offer of support from Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg contrasted sharply with the weasel words of Tory leader David Cameron.

Of course, there's one very good reason why Brown would not do such a thing - it was Cable, then Lib Dem acting leader, who last November produced what is almost certainly the most wounding jibe the Prime Minister has suffered in the House of Commons since taking over from Blair.

During the controversy over Labour's secret loans, Cable spoke of Brown's "remarkable transformation in the last few weeks from Stalin to Mr Bean, creating chaos out of order rather than order out of chaos." But a man who can welcome back a once bitter foe like Peter Mandelson could surely forgive Cable's levity.

Nor should it be forgotten that Brown and Cable have shared history. As Cable once recalled: "I first saw him in action a third of a century ago when we both learnt to swim in the pool of Scottish Labour politics. He was a precocious young academic and thinker, though at that stage overshadowed politically by our contemporary Robin Cook and John Smith, who was developing a modernising agenda in the heartlands of old-fashioned socialism."

Brown and Cable were both graduates of Glasgow University and lectured there. The former Labour leader John Smith was a mentor to both men: in the 1970s Cable was special advisor to Smith when he was Industry Secretary.

So there is no fundamental obstacle to Brown bringing Cable. But would Brown dump Darling? Sacking Chancellors is high risk. Tony Blair thought of moving Brown from the Treasury but recoiled from it, mindful of the damage done to Margaret Thatcher by her breach with Nigel Lawson and the acrimonious sacking of Norman Lamont by John Major.

Against that Darling has, throughout his political career, been a wholly-owned subsidiary of Gordon Brown. He has no personal following among Labour MPs and there is little chance he would say boo to the boss.

If Cable did go to the Treasury, one man who would feel vindicated is Evan Davis of the Today Programme. Lib Dems are still glowing with the testimonial Davis delivered during a tough interview with Tory Shadow Chancellor George Osbourne at the end of September.

Davis said: "It sounds to me like I should vote for Vince Cable. Vince Cable was against demutualising the building societies back in the 1990s when your government was doing that. Vince Cable was sending me as an economics editor [Davis's previous role at the BBC] emails every three weeks, about the levels of debt through the last five years and he has been instrumental in saying that the taxpayer needs to be protected, nationalising the banks, and in having the upside risks as well as the downside ones are the way to go. Why if I am angry would I vote for you over him."

After a limp response from Osbourne, Davis followed up with: "Do you know as much about economics as Vince Cable, George?"

FIRST POSTED OCTOBER 9, 2008